Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date



I argue that John Craig (1996?–1731) is the first to do Bayesian statistics. Filtering email spam today using Bayes's analysis of 1763 is a new application of an old theorem. Craig 67 years before Bayes's theorem used subjective probabilities reasoning to argue that Jesus would return in the year 3150, because the Bible would eventually come into disrepute (become spam?) then.



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