Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date

6-2-2005

Abstract

I argue that John Craig (1996?–1731) is the first to do Bayesian statistics. Filtering email spam today using Bayes's analysis of 1763 is a new application of an old theorem. Craig 67 years before Bayes's theorem used subjective probabilities reasoning to argue that Jesus would return in the year 3150, because the Bible would eventually come into disrepute (become spam?) then.

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.